Why is shipping so volatile?
Shipping carries at least 80% of world trade by volume. When it works, nobody notices it. When it breaks, it makes the front page: the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, the ports around Ukraine.
In an October 2026 ET Evoke interview, Harvard economist Myrto Kalouptsidi described shipping as "far more volatile than any stock market". Her research explains why.
Every export passes through a chain of queues: finding a ship, waiting to berth, loading, and sailing a route. Ports have fixed capacity (cranes, berths and people), so when a congested port gets even a small rise in demand, waiting times can explode.
Reroutes do the same at sea. When ships avoid the Suez Canal and sail round the Cape of Good Hope, each voyage takes longer, so the same fleet makes fewer trips. Effective capacity falls, freight rates jump, and the cost passes on to the goods. A local shock becomes a global one.
Her team's ship-position data also found that ships sail empty about 40% of the time, because trade flows are so unbalanced. The system has less slack than it seems.
What does that mean for an exporter or importer?
For a trade or logistics team, volatility shows up as:
- a vessel that slips its ETA by a week, with nobody told until the plant asks where the material is;
- a container transshipped at a port that was not in the plan;
- a production schedule built on a promised date that no longer exists;
- hours spent on carrier websites and email chains to answer "where is it?", one shipment at a time;
- customer delivery dates committed without knowing the real arrival date.
When the network is stable, a manual check now and then is enough. When it is not, you need to know the moment something changes.
Why is OptiTrack.AI a must for shipment tracking?
OptiTrack.AI, from Innoval Digital Solutions (IVL), tracks every inbound and outbound shipment, by sea and air, in one place. It works with SAP on-premise and on SAP BTP, and as an add-on to IVL's SAP EXIM solutions, OptiEXIM and OptiEXIMc, so tracking sits next to the export and import documents.
- Every sea shipment, FCL and LCL. Track by master bill of lading or container number, with data from more than 100 shipping lines for vessel positions and ETAs.
- Predictive ETAs. AI-predicted arrival times, so a likely delay shows up before the carrier's schedule changes.
- Air cargo by MAWB. Enter the master air waybill number and follow acceptance, departure, transit connections, arrival and delivery from live airline data.
- ISO tank containers, with specialised tracking for liquid cargo.
- Alerts when it matters. Email alerts when a container reaches its destination, and for transshipments or changes in ETA, so the team hears about a delay before the plant or the customer does.
- One view for management. Containers in transit by business segment, performance by shipping line, port-wise status, a regional breakdown, on-time versus delayed deliveries, and an inbound and outbound summary.
- Works with your SAP. On SAP on-premise or SAP BTP, on its own or with OptiEXIM or OptiEXIMc.
The result is fewer follow-up calls and emails, earlier warning of delays, and decisions based on where the cargo actually is.
What does it look like in practice?
One of India's leading manufacturers of interior and surface solutions runs high volumes of inbound and outbound shipments. With OptiTrack.AI alongside OptiEXIM on RISE with SAP, it now has live shipment visibility with no manual updates. Read the go-live story.
Disruptions will come back. How do you absorb them?
Kalouptsidi also points to climate change: more storms, droughts that limit canals, and rising seas near ports. The next shock is a question of when, not if. Companies that see their containers in real time can re-plan production, warn customers and move cargo earlier; the rest find out late.
To see OptiTrack.AI on your own shipments, email our specialists at info@ivldsp.com or book a demo.
Frequently asked questions
What is OptiTrack.AI?
OptiTrack.AI is IVL's container and shipment tracking solution. It tracks every inbound and outbound sea and air shipment in one place, with predictive ETAs, alerts, MIS reports and SAP-integrated visibility.
Can OptiTrack.AI track air cargo as well as containers?
Yes. Sea shipments, FCL and LCL, are tracked by master bill of lading or container number, and air cargo by master air waybill (MAWB), from live shipping line and airline data. ISO tank containers are tracked too.
How many shipping lines does OptiTrack.AI cover?
More than 100 shipping lines, plus major airlines for air cargo.
Does OptiTrack.AI predict arrival times?
Yes. OptiTrack.AI gives predictive ETAs, so a likely delay shows up before the carrier's schedule changes, and sends alerts on transshipments and ETA changes.
Which alerts does OptiTrack.AI send?
Email alerts when a container reaches its destination, and for transshipments or changes in the estimated time of arrival.
Does OptiTrack.AI work with SAP and OptiEXIM?
Yes. OptiTrack.AI works with SAP on-premise and on SAP BTP, and as an add-on to OptiEXIM and OptiEXIMc, IVL's SAP EXIM solutions, so shipment tracking sits next to the export and import documents.